Our Q1 2017 Global Market Outlook, Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus, examines vulnerabilities in the bullish consensus narrative underpinning global equity markets. The key vulnerabilities discussed are U.S. dollar appreciation, elevated U.S. Small Cap valuations, questionable assumptions behind the bullish narrative on EM equities, as well as gathering geopolitical risks.
Our Q1 2017 Global Market Outlook, Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus, examines vulnerabilities in the bullish consensus narrative underpinning global equity markets. The key vulnerabilities discussed are U.S. dollar appreciation, elevated U.S. Small Cap valuations, questionable assumptions behind the bullish narrative on EM equities, as well as gathering geopolitical risks.
Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential elections was another resounding expression of the phenomenon which we described as The Revenge of the Precariat over Davos Man in our July post Brexit commentary.
This paper analyzes situations where momentum can be either a significant tailwind or exacerbate risks and undermine portfolio diversification. The Special Report looks at historical data and focuses on four key points.
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Duration: 57 minutes
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Our outlook looks at global equity markets, earnings, emerging markets, and currencies through the end of the year in the face of another interest rate hike in December and impending political events in the U.S. and Europe. We also evaluate the longer term macroeconomic and investment strategy implications of impending monetary policy exhaustion and resurgent populism in a piece entitled: Goldilocks is on Life Support: Investment Strategy in Light of Monetary Policy Exhaustion and Resurgent Populism
PHILADELPHIA, PA, August 17, 2016 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, is celebrating its 20th anniversary of working alongside institutional investors across the nation, helping entrepreneurial asset management firms advance, and serving the Philadelphia community.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, July 20, 2016 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its Q3 2016 Market Outlook. The outlook looks at the risks the vote poses to political stability in Europe, the surging yen in Japan, fading fears of an imminent U.S. recession, and the results of a modest safe haven rise in the U.S. dollar for emerging markets.
The turmoil that erupted after the June 23rd Brexit referendum has purportedly prompted many people who voted “Leave” to rethink their decision. New PM Theresa May has stated that “Brexit means Brexit,” dimming hopes that the referendum’s results would be reversed; but also inferring that Article 50 will not be invoked until next year. May has also appointed a number of prominent Brexit supporters to her cabinet,
with David Davis heading the new “Brexit Ministry” and Boris Johnson installed as the Foreign Secretary. These pronouncements and appointments could indicate that she has succumbed to Brexit (despite her earlier opposition) or it could be a shrewd political strategy to allow its economic and political consequences to hit home with voters and force her former rivals to “own” the fallout if and when the public turns on Brexit and its proponents. If future opinion polls show that a decisive plurality of UK voters favor remaining in the EU, this would give the British government the excuse necessary to call for a second plebiscite.
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Duration: 43 minutes
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PHILADELPHIA, PA, April 19, 2016 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its Q2 2016 Market Outlook. This new report recaps the resurgence in risk assets post February 12th and updates FIS Group’s 2016 themes including the emerging markets (EM) rally, a disappointing quarter for Japan, China’s shift from reform to stimulus, and the USD/Federal Reserve policy “negative feedback loop.”
The upsurge in equity prices that started on March 10, 2009 has been among the most despised and distrusted bullmarkets of all time. For each of its seven years, newfound horror stories materialized to interrupt the bull trend with corrections roughly as large and as scary as the one which began this year. In 2009 the S&P 500, still reeling from the aftermath of the GFC, declined by 25% through March 9, 2009. In 2010, fear over the U.S. deficit set off a -15 % correction. In 2011, panic over a U.S. Treasury default sent the S&P down
-19.5%. In 2012, the euro crisis caused two corrections, -10% in the spring and then -8% in the autumn. In 2013, the panic was about Federal Reserve tapering and a U.S. government shutdown, although these only hit the S&P by -6%. In 2014, carnage in the Middle East and Ukraine catalyzed an -8% setback. And last summer, policy blunders in China caused a correction of -12%. Importantly, each of these corrections turned out to be a buying opportunity.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, March 24, 2016 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its latest Market Insights Alert, on Brazil’s political tensions, market turbulence, and economic disarray.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, March 3, 2016 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its 2016 Frontier Markets Outlook, which highlights opportunities in the frontier markets of Argentina, Vietnam, and Frontier Europe (ex Kazakhstan).
Brazilians are famous (or at least stereotyped) for their supposedly laid back “tropical” attitude towards life. Generations of foreign visitors smitten by the profound beauty and docility of Brazil’s natural landscape have marveled at “the Brazilian way” (o jeitinho brasileiro) of managing what to outsiders appears to be a relaxed, happy-go-lucky life amid structural chaos, bureaucratic ineptitude, and economic disarray. The old and famous Brazilian joke cited above pokes fun at these seeming contradictions.
Similar to most other major global markets, 2015 was also largely a year to forget on the frontier. The few bright spots of meaningfully positive local returns (Argentina and Romania) were largely overwhelmed by further currency weakness relative to the U.S. Dollar. Looking ahead for 2016, we see a global sense of skittishness and thin growth leadership as extending to the frontier markets as well, though their lesser lack of integration and correlation with global markets will separate some markets more than others. To that end, the asset concentration within the small universe of global frontier markets managers is our top concern across frontier markets for 2016. Thus at the broadest level, we recommend underweighting global frontier markets vis a vis other clearer opportunities in Japanese equities, but see some genuine opportunities in the frontier universe relative to emerging markets. Otherwise our views here largely reflect our recommendations for medium-term allocations within the frontier universe. As in emerging markets, we expect U.S. dollar strength to continue, and indeed may even be exacerbated by local currency weakness in selected markets (e.g. Nigeria). Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC are making headlines for their regional confrontations, both hot and cold, fiscal struggles and influence in the oil market, but also for some peculiar reforms to the stock market. Nigeria is both cheap and expensive in different parts, and could be poised for a truly volatile 2016. Indeed much of the big African stocks seem expensive compared to their European, Asian, or Latin American counterparts, and these stocks seem poised at best for stagnation in 2016 and possibly a significant de-rating. But the universe is not without its bright spots and we see very positive macro fundamentals and micro market catalysts in Argentina, Vietnam, and Frontier Europe (ex Kazakhstan).
PHILADELPHIA, PA, January 15, 2016 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its Q1 2016 Market Outlook, which suggests caution on U.S. equities, highlights opportunities in Japan, Europe, and India, and assesses possible sources of a tail risk event that could disrupt global equities.
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Duration: 47 minutes
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For the most part, 2015 was a forgettable year as growth anemia and disappointment, enduring characteristics of the post GFC period, continued. At 3.1%, global growth once again underperformed IMF forecasts from October 2014 with most of the disappointment emanating from the Emerging world that is most exposed to the slowdown in China and the end of the commodity super-cycle. With notable exceptions of commodity producers such as Brazil and South Africa, inflation also underperformed the 2014 forecast, underpinned primarily by weak demand and the precipitous decline in commodity prices.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, October 29, 2015 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier market equity portfolio strategies, today issued its newest Market Insights Alert on the rapidly evolving economic and investment picture in China. Following the summer’s volatility and the ongoing Chinese economic deterioration and sliding profit data which has unnerved global investors, FIS Group looks at the risks and opportunities across asset classes: equities, currency, and fixed income.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, October 26, 2015 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier market equity portfolio strategies, issued its Q4 2015 Market Outlook, which underlines caution towards global equity markets, but highlights a counter-trend relief rally in Brazil, Japan, Europe, China, and India.
Since mid-June this year, the wild ride in the Chinese A-share stock market along with deteriorating economic and profit data have unnerved many global investors. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government’s remarkably stable GDP growth reports of 7% for Q2 and 6.9% for Q3 have engendered increasing concern over the credibility of official figures. In an attempt to counter this slowdown, the government has rolled out a series of measures designed to stimulate demand. It has cut interest rates and reduced bank reserve requirements seven times this year, released funds for infrastructure investment, cut taxes on automobile sales and lowered the required down-payment for home mortgages. Historical precedent suggest that as China transitions to a “middle income” economy, the path of least resistance is downward. Based in part on observations from our recent visit to China, in this report, we posit that the key to understanding opportunities and risks in China is to:
PHILADELPHIA, PA, July 30, 2015 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its newest Market Insights Alert which concludes that smaller managers deliver an additional 200bps of performance than larger managers in frontier market equities.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, July 27, 2015 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its newest Market Insights Alert which looks at the transformation of the Chinese economy from export-led to being driven by domestic consumption. In the alert, “Transition to a Chinese-Style ‘New Normal’: Less is More” FIS Group also provides a detailed evaluation of the government’s progress implementing its reform agenda and concludes that while there is still more upside for Chinese A share equities, the next period will be characterized by extreme volatility.
In China, economic results of late have largely been disappointing, with traditional headline indicators highlighting sluggish growth and mounting deflation risk. Our view is that China is experiencing the economic transition to a so-called “New Normal”, and the prevailing growth slowdown, gauged by traditional industrial-focused indicators, is both necessary and essential for the ongoing economic transformation. In this paper, we will discuss the key priorities of the reform agenda, along with the Chinese government’s progress in implementing these reforms to date. In the last section, we will discuss the nascence of this round of the bull stock market and the recent massive correction, along with our short-term and long-term expectations. The bottom line is that we are positive on China’s economic reform and the government’s efforts in supporting capital market reform. We also believe that there will be more upside in Chinese A-shares, but that the next leg will be characterized by extreme volatility.
For 19 years FIS Group has successfully invested with entrepreneurial managers in global equities markets based on the considerable body of research suggesting that talented, high-active share, entrepreneurial managers are best positioned to outperform market benchmarks, net of fees. We believe that there are generally two reasons, both timeless and universal, why this inefficiency will continue. First, entrepreneurs with “skin in the game” are motivated to work harder, as entrepreneurs generally are in every other business across the time and space of human history. Second, in the modern markets of listed equities, size and scale are the enemies of alpha. While we have long known both of these simple (but nonetheless surprisingly ignored) truths to be self-evident in asset management, the significant opportunity of investing with entrepreneurial managers continues unabated. However in our firm’s 19 years of investing and decades more of experience of our principals, we have rarely (if ever) seen so clear a demonstration of both of these sources of alpha in one simple chart.
As Greece’s negotiations with its creditors devolved over the weekend fostering a global rout in risk assets on Monday, through my attendance at a global investor forum in Europe, I solicited the thoughts of institutional investors that live and work closer to the epicenter of the crisis. Not surprisingly, I found a wide divergence of risk appetites and aversion. However, my overwhelming impression is that, while many recognize a high risk of short term volatility, investors here are quite sanguine about the medium and long-term risks of a Greek default or even a so called “Grexit”. This document reflects my observations from the various presentations and conversations over the last few days. This commentary borrows heavily in particular from a presentation and paper by Marko Papic, from BCA Research.
PHILADELPHIA, PA, February 25, 2015 – FIS Group, an innovative leader in sourcing and building long-only manager of managers portfolios, together with Talson Capital Management, launch the Paragon Discovery Fund, a new hedge fund of funds strategy. The Fund is a joint venture between FIS Group and Talson Capital Management, the Darien, Connecticut-based, investment firm that manages and customizes portfolios of hedge fund investments. FIS Group is hosting a webcast today to signify the official launch of the Fund.
