45 years of de facto Fed independence appears increasingly at risk. President Trump has already installed one Fed Governor, is attempting (possibly illegally) to dismiss another, and has triggered market speculation about his ability or willingness to even dismiss the Chairman. What does this mean for markets?
As we enter the home stretch of 2025, we are struck by the current state of valuations in the fixed income markets. We are particularly struck by the divergence between broad market valuations and the growing weakness in various economic sectors.
In this environment, investors should balance exposure between the structural tailwinds of AI and the cyclical vulnerabilities of an economy still walking a fine line between expansion and slowdown.
In this piece, we will look into key structural differences within segments of U.S. private equity strategies (with an emphasis on buyout funds) that are likely to become critical return drivers in the coming years in the evolving macroeconomic environment.
In this paper, we begin by examining the differences between equity index construction and fixed income benchmark construction. We then analyze data from the eVestment database to evaluate the performance of the Bloomberg Aggregate index relative to the median active manager.
FTSE Russell introduced issuer‑level concentration caps to the Russell U.S. Style indexes in March 2025 to temper mega‑cap dominance while preserving benchmark utility.
With equity markets producing vast streams of data from corporate fundamentals to market prices, sentiment, and alternative datasets, machine learning offers the ability to uncover subtle, nonlinear relationships that traditional linear factor models might overlook.
Despite the relative calm in markets, Q2 2025 was undeniably a roller coaster. The quarter opened with volatility fueled by “Liberation Day” tariffs and closed on a more composed financial note—though uncertainty around international trade policy remains unresolved.
As we enter the second half of 2025, the next six months are expected to be defined by a slowing global economy, tariff uncertainty, and market volatility.
For the past 15 years, global investors’ default positioning was to hold U.S. Dollars as the most obvious choice of non-domestic currencies (and maybe most obvious overall choice) and when investing outside their own equity markets, to look first to the U.S.
Non-US banks in developed markets (“EAFE banks”) have quietly emerged as the top-outperforming segments in global equity markets over the past three years (through Q1 2025). This paper explores the fundamental development of EAFE banks over the past decade, dissecting by European and Japanese entities.
Nations whose currencies serve as global reserve currencies enjoy unique benefits but also face structural challenges.
As we enter the second quarter of 2025, there is much to consider for fixed income markets and the broader economy.
The opening quarter of 2025 was a roller coaster ride for investors, beginning with optimism but ending with considerable turmoil.
America – or at least the Trump Administration – and Europe are clearly seeing the world differently these days.
This piece is the third in a three-part series on the issues that led to 2024’s anti-incumbent party backlash. Here, we evaluate the trade and other fiscal proposals put forward by the incoming Trump administration, as well as their investment implications.
U.S. stock markets experienced positive performance in 2024, and that trend is expected to continue in 2025. However, 2025 also has the potential to experience increased market volatility and shifting trends due to policy changes from the incoming administration combined with uncertainty about inflation and global economic conditions.
Given the substantial price action in rate markets, we consider what outcomes the market is currently pricing, the risks to this “consensus” view, and what we think will or will not occur as the new administration begins its term.
Understanding the interplay of policy, market sentiment, and regional dynamics is critical for successful investment positioning in this era of renewed protectionism and global economic realignment.
This is the second of a three-part series on the two issues that led to 2024’s anti-incumbent party backlash. This paper evaluates salient macroeconomic, demographic, and social factors that have or should inform immigration policy, as well as the policy solutions put forward by the incoming administration to address unauthorized workers in America.
The electorate is in a foul mood. Not just in the U.S., but globally, where incumbent parties have faced unprecedented levels of reversal. In each of the 10 major countries tracked by the Financial Times’ ParlGov global research, incumbent leaders were either given the boot or a painful thrashing.
As risk-on traders take a victory lap amid surging equity markets and now renewed monetary policy accommodation, the expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy now form the base case scenario for a preponderance of U.S. investors.
