As we approach the end of 2024, market volatility persists, with the market narrative frequently shifting in response to new economic data releases. But what does this mean for fixed income markets and portfolio decisions in the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond?
As we reach the midpoint of 2024, the economy grapples with familiar question that has persisted over the past couple of years. When will the substantial increase in interest rates significantly impact economic conditions?
As we close the books on the first quarter of 2024, we are once again struck by the contradiction between careful data analysis and changing narratives regarding market direction.
The 4th quarter Treasury and spread rally rescued the broad fixed income market from another year of negative or barely positive (depending on sector) returns. In traditional bond market fashion, however, we find much to worry about with stretched valuations in most of the spread sectors and an uncertain path forward for the economy and interest rates.
In this quarter’s update, we begin by looking at interest rates at the very broadest levels, i.e. Treasury markets and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actions. We then take stock of the fixed income landscape, looking at current market metrics against a historical backdrop.
