What Is Really Happening In China? — A Late-Year Revisit And Local Insights From Our China Trip

Since mid-June this year, the wild ride in the Chinese A-share stock market along with deteriorating economic and profit data have unnerved many global investors. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government’s remarkably stable GDP growth reports of 7% for Q2 and 6.9% for Q3 have engendered increasing concern over the credibility of official figures. In an attempt to counter this slowdown, the government has rolled out a series of measures designed to stimulate demand. It has cut interest rates and reduced bank reserve requirements seven times this year, released funds for infrastructure investment, cut taxes on automobile sales and lowered the required down-payment for home mortgages. Historical precedent suggest that as China transitions to a “middle income” economy, the path of least resistance is downward. Based in part on observations from our recent visit to China, in this report, we posit that the key to understanding opportunities and risks in China is to:

China Slowdown A “New Normal” As Transformation Of Economy Advances

PHILADELPHIA, PA, July 27, 2015 – FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier markets equity portfolio strategies, today issued its newest Market Insights Alert which looks at the transformation of the Chinese economy from export-led to being driven by domestic consumption. In the alert, “Transition to a Chinese-Style ‘New Normal’: Less is More” FIS Group also provides a detailed evaluation of the government’s progress implementing its reform agenda and concludes that while there is still more upside for Chinese A share equities, the next period will be characterized by extreme volatility.

Transition To A Chinese-Style “New Normal”: Less Is More

In China, economic results of late have largely been disappointing, with traditional headline indicators highlighting sluggish growth and mounting deflation risk. Our view is that China is experiencing the economic transition to a so-called “New Normal”, and the prevailing growth slowdown, gauged by traditional industrial-focused indicators, is both necessary and essential for the ongoing economic transformation. In this paper, we will discuss the key priorities of the reform agenda, along with the Chinese government’s progress in implementing these reforms to date. In the last section, we will discuss the nascence of this round of the bull stock market and the recent massive correction, along with our short-term and long-term expectations. The bottom line is that we are positive on China’s economic reform and the government’s efforts in supporting capital market reform. We also believe that there will be more upside in Chinese A-shares, but that the next leg will be characterized by extreme volatility.

Big Is Bad (Really Bad) In Frontier Market Equities

For 19 years FIS Group has successfully invested with entrepreneurial managers in global equities markets based on the considerable body of research suggesting that talented, high-active share, entrepreneurial managers are best positioned to outperform market benchmarks, net of fees. We believe that there are generally two reasons, both timeless and universal, why this inefficiency will continue. First, entrepreneurs with “skin in the game” are motivated to work harder, as entrepreneurs generally are in every other business across the time and space of human history. Second, in the modern markets of listed equities, size and scale are the enemies of alpha. While we have long known both of these simple (but nonetheless surprisingly ignored) truths to be self-evident in asset management, the significant opportunity of investing with entrepreneurial managers continues unabated. However in our firm’s 19 years of investing and decades more of experience of our principals, we have rarely (if ever) seen so clear a demonstration of both of these sources of alpha in one simple chart.