MARKET OUTLOOK Q2 2019 – Late Cycle Rally on Borrowed Time
Although global growth declined in Q1, as anticipated in our Q1 2019 Outlook, risk assets continued their December 2018 romp as a result of an apparent de-escalation of U.S.-Sino trade tensions and a decidedly dovish pivot by G10 Central banks (See Table One). Some US...
2019 Outlook for Frontier Markets
Frontier markets slumped in line with other non-dollar denominated markets in 2018; though outside of Argentina, frontier markets as a whole outperformed even the U.S. market. In our annual outlook we first look back to grade our calls from last year (spoiler: very...
Q1 2019 Market Outlook: Après moi, le déluge – A Late Cycle Rally as Part of a Protracted Market Topping Process
Each year we begin our Q1 market outlook by holding ourselves to account for the results of the previous year’s macro strategy calls. We then give a detailed overview of what we see as the chief headwinds…
Q4 Market Outlook: From A Trade War To A Cold War?
Following the imposition of a second round of tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s concomitant imposition of retaliatory tariffs, we are – by nearly any reasonable definition of a trade war – in the heart of one at this time. There is good reason to...