Research and Commentary
FIS Group Archive | A Clear PerspectiveAbout Global Market Outlook Reports
About Global Market Outlook Reports
Our CIO, Tina Byles Williams, publishes our market outlook on a quarterly basis, based on research that examines market conditions over a three- to six-month period. These quarterly analyses serve as key inputs to our fund construction process, which incorporates strategic tilts to the market segments we believe will outperform over a six- to 12-month time frame. For global equity portfolios, these tilts incorporate regional, sector, and capitalization strata as well as investment process and style factors. For U.S. equity portfolios, tilts include sector, capitalization strata, investment process, and/or style factors.
Our objective is to construct a portfolio of “best in class” investments with weightings consistent with our overall investment strategy.
FIS Group Global Market Outlook Reports
Too Good to Be True: The Failure of Defensive Managers During Recent Inflationary Shocks
The failure of the returns-based approach, along with some interesting dynamics observed in factor contributions, opens an extremely interesting avenue for future analysis. What role did the macroeconomic regime (inflation, top line growth, and interest rates) play in the “defensiveness” of strategies, and what can be done to avoid misclassifying strategies during sharp regime changes?
U.S. Fixed Income: Q4 2023 Update
The 4th quarter Treasury and spread rally rescued the broad fixed income market from another year of negative or barely positive (depending on sector) returns. In traditional bond market fashion, however, we find much to worry about with stretched valuations in most of the spread sectors and an uncertain path forward for the economy and interest rates.
The View From the Top: What the Markets Look Like at a Potential Top of the Rate Cycle
Investors’ 2023 New Years’ resolution was apparently to forgive and forget their travails of 2022, as global markets spent 2023 shrugging off the prior years’ anxieties. Excluding emerging East Asia, major global markets have already fully recovered from their losses related to the inflation induced rate cycle kicked off in early 2022.
Systematic Global Equities: Q4 2023 Update
As 2023 drew to a close, the financial markets began to manifest the early signs of a soft-landing scenario, marked by a robust rally in equity markets in the fourth quarter, showcasing double-digit gains. This period was characterized by broadening of market strength, with notable outperformance by small-cap stocks, heavily shorted names, lower-quality companies, unprofitable tech, and a mix of long-duration, meme, cyclical, and value stocks.
Time for a New China Strategy? The Case for Decoupling Asset Allocation in Chinese Risk Assets: Q3 2023 Market Outlook
Already responsible for an estimated $5 billion in stimulative consumer spending – the equivalent of the entire annual earnings of Starbucks, American Airlines, or FedEx – the Taylor Swift ‘Eras’ Tour is doing more than its part to save the global economy. However, the economic phenomenon being dubbed ‘Swiftonomics’ will forsake China, as the pop legend’s tour plays four dates in Japan and a record six dates in Singapore, but not in the world’s second largest economy.
Shades of Value: Navigating the Nuances of Value Index Differences
In this update we review the results of the most recent Russell 1000 Large Cap Value annual Style Index rebalance that occurred on June 23rd. We also compare the exposures of the Russell 1000 Value index versus the S&P 500 Value index at 06/30/23 and consider the potential impact of factor and sector differences between the indexes on investors targeting large cap value exposure.
Market Insights Alert
Papers: FIS Group Proprietary Research
Battening Down the Hatches Part Three
View PDF version Battening Down The Hatches Part ThreePart 3: Evaluating Rebalancing Techniques for Portfolio DeriskingIn this, the third of a three-part series “Battening Down the Hatches”, we evaluate portfolio derisking techniques that most cost effectively...
Long duration equity strategies (growth, technology, certain private equity LBO strategies) appear vulnerable….
It is difficult to build a case that equity markets won’t contract in a slow-down. Since 1950, whenever CAPE valuations were above 20 and industrial production declined in the previous 12 months, the 12-month return of the stock market was -10.4%, with only 34% of periods having positive returns.
Some bond strategies may not live up to their downside protection billing the next time….
Interest income is attributable for all or most of bonds’ downside protection; therefore starting yields are critical. Bonds have traditionally been an important component of any portfolio derisking strategy but interest income has been a significantly larger piece of the return pie during economic downturns; whilst spread compression has been less significant.
What Asset Classes and Sectors have provided downside protection in prior market downturns?
Our analysis suggests that:
1. Low volatility strategies outperformed among publicly traded equities
2. Exposure to corporate default risk reduced bonds’ downside protection.
Why the 1970s and early 1980s style stagflation are unlikely today
The three preconditions that led to the stagflation period of the 1970s are less likely today. But the relationship between trade disruptions and growth could catalyze a global recession and the relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations could abort the easy monetary policy which current asset prices discount.
What economic and market characteristics are different today that prior pre-downturn periods?
Our evaluation of key downturns over the last 30-year point to 3 key differences between today’s macro backdrop and the most recent period.
Videos And Webinars
Market Outlook and Research Webinars
The FIS Group Ecosystem
Panelist Information: N/A
Duration: 40 minutes
Description: N/A
Ecosystem Webinar Presentation
Facilitating opportunity
• Grow and diversify the pool of talented entrepreneurial managers to the benefit
of the asset management industry
• Support entrepreneurial efforts of talented investment managers
• Increase FIS Group’s first mover track record from 25% to 50%
of all funded firms
• Funded entirely by revenue generated from
FIS Group’s core business
• Services provided at no cost to the managers
From Versus to Versatility: Exploring the Cyclicality of Active & Passive Management
Panelist Information: N/A
Duration: 51 minutes
Description: This interactive webinar discussion will be led by FIS Group’s Founder and CIO, Tina Byles Williams. The discussion will highlight the actionable implications from our recently published white paper entitled, “Is Active Equity Management Alpha on Permanent or Temporary Disability?” Additionally, the paper’s models have been updated for this discussion, and Tina will reveal whether the updates had a significant effect on the original conclusions. Tina will close this webinar by providing participants with a peek at what FIS Group’s market and risk models are forecasting for 4th Quarter.
The topics to be discussed during the webinar include the following:
• Evidence pointing to the cyclical nature of periods when either active or passive management are in favor rather than a permanent “new normal” where active U.S. large-cap managers struggle to beat their benchmarks;
• Updates on several of the conclusions published in the original paper and their implication for active managers in a time of anticipated Fed tapering and slowing of corporate profit growth;
• The uncertainty of whether the ‘Risk On, Risk Off’ trading environment of the last five years will persist or give way to a renewed premium on stock picking;
• FIS Group’s forecast for the 4Q 2013 market environment and our view on investment opportunities for capital allocators and equity managers for the remainder of the year.